Economic Monitor Q4/2025

The global economy has proved surprisingly resilient so far in 2025. Despite trade conflicts and higher US tariffs, the OECD expects global GDP growth of 3.2%, only slightly below the previous year's figure. In the USA, economic growth is slowing to 2.0%, while the eurozone is growing at 1.3%. At the same time, pull-forward effects in foreign trade, investments in data centers and artificial intelligence in the US and fiscal stimuli in Europe are making it difficult to interpret the short-term economic signals. The labor markets remain stable overall. However, the decline in job vacancies points to a gradual slowdown. In Liechtenstein, the economy remains below average. The KonSens remains at -0.6, employment growth has been negative since the fourth quarter of 2024 and the economic survey signals a decline in personnel planning in the industrial sector. The Liechtenstein banking sector is stable in the current environment. Client assets under management reached a new high of CHF 523 billion, driven by net new money inflows. The monetary policy environment remains challenging. Inflation in the eurozone is back above 2%, while inflation in the USA also remains high and in Switzerland it has fallen back to 0%. The US Federal Reserve lowered key interest rates again, with the projections of Fed decision-makers indicating increased uncertainty about the path ahead. The ECB and SNB left their key interest rates unchanged in December. On the financial markets, AI optimism is supporting share prices. At the same time, high valuations and economic policy uncertainty are increasing the risk of abrupt market corrections.

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